2011 Economic Outlook

2011 Economic Outlook


In the last few years, countless newspaper articles, magazines, Internet sources, and also books have celebrated the long term bull market that established in the year of Millennium.

I could be an informer that gives data for stock market. This is the trend for the year 2011. The market is, after all, driven by human beings, and that is what it makes endlessly fascinating.

I dug deeper and deeper into history for the answers. This research, which become the foundation of my article.


The United States is not threatened in a major war because during the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, there was a parliamentary election system which were influence by Western Civilization. Taliban is another issue even it happens in Afghanistan.

The 1st mega market is occur between year 1877 and 1891, evolved after the Civil war ended in 1865, and soldiers on both sides flowed back to the farms and into the civilian workforce.

The 2nd mega market happens during World War I and also the stock market increased four and a half times in value in the space of just eight years.

The 3rd mega market was a big event because after the Second World War, America and Japan started on its journey to become a true economic super power, fueled by the resources that is no longer had to be devoted to the war effort.

The 4th mega market is the present market nowadays. If we can recall the signing agreement of former President Ronald Reagan of United states and former Soviet union President Mikhail Gorbachev to end the old war. Under the Obama Administration, the death of Osama Bin Laden which affects September 11,2001 attacks or known as 9/11.

During the end of cold war, many things happen and there were also changes such as the end of war and the dawn of peace, new technologies from United Kingdom, Germany, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and lastly low inflation.

After I mention the four mega-markets, this time I will mention all mega-markets evolve because of the following axioms:

War is inflationary

Peace is deflationary

War is unproductive

Peace is productive

War is a time of fear and despair

Peace is a time of hope and prosperity.

The global economy is at risk of stagnating due to the rapid increase of oil prices caused by political unrest in Africa and Middle East which considers a demand for political reforms that are expected to increase alongside government expenditures such as subsidies that are doled out to help combat high food prices and unemployment. There is a drop in tourism and capital flight that will likely deepen the unfavorable effect on the region’s balance of payments.

Supply chain disruptions due to the massive destruction which caused by the Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan that happens in the month of March.

These incidents suddenly and surprisingly change to economic landscape and compel us to shift the outlook.

There is a change in government policy or an economic growth on the home front that could establish an interest rates in terms of financing. According to the article of Tenille Aho of GoArticles, he states that Gold is sort of kind of investment.

There is a turmoil in the financial markets because of concern about possible default by one or Euro zone governments.

There is a downgrade of the Credit rating of U. S. Government securities by Standard and Poor’s following protracted efforts to increased the debt ceiling.


After presenting my introductory part, the content, this time I will give my conclusion in this respective article.

I believe that history and the insights provided by serious technical analysis offer support for my view of the current stock market. We are in the middle of a true global market, and it could be a well promise much longer run.

They must remember that the stock market is not just dry statistics and hot money. Global markets are driven by human desires for profit and growth, and by emotions ranging from hope to fear.


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